Financial Associated Press, May 3 (editor Niu Zhanlin) Thursday local timePokervideogamespcThe Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its forecast for global GDP growth.PokervideogamespcAnd warned that the global economy could still suffer a major setback if the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East pushed up oil prices sharply.
In its latest global economic outlook report, OECD raised its forecast for economic growth this year and next, predicting a global GDP growth rate of 3% in 2024.Pokervideogamespc.1%, compared with the previous forecast of 2% growthPokervideogamespc.9%; the growth rate will rise to 3.2% in 2025, compared with 3% previously expected.
In addition, the report also pointed out that despite stronger-than-expected economic growth, inflation is expected to fall back to the target level of major central banks, laying the foundation for interest rate cuts later this year.
Clare Lombardelli, chief economist of OECD, said: "I will not declare that I have won, but the realization of victory is certainly not as painful as everyone had feared." However, OECD warned that if the conflict in the Middle East spreads, it will undermine the improvement of the global economic outlook.
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024
OECD pointed out that the pace of global economic recovery varies widely, Europe and Japan as a whole remain depressed, and much of the improvement in the outlook is driven by the US, while the UK is the worst-performing economy in the developed world.
'We are beginning to see some recovery in many parts of the world, 'said Alvaro Pereira, director of policy research at OECD.' growth in developed countries will be led by North America next year, while emerging economies are also showing signs of growth,'he said.
Specifically, OECD now expects the US economy to grow by 2.6 per cent this year, compared with a previous forecast of 2.1 per cent. Strong growth in the US economy has led to a series of higher-than-expected inflation figures, driven by factors such as government spending, but the OECD still expects the Fed to cut key interest rates in 2024.
The OECD raised its forecast for eurozone growth this year to 0.7 per cent from the previous 0.6 per cent and to 1.5 per cent in 2025, compared with a previous forecast of 1.3 per cent.
The UK is one of the few countries whose economic outlook has been downgraded, with the OECD forecasting growth of just 0.4 per cent this year, compared with a previous forecast of 0.7 per cent. But as interest rates begin to be cut in the third quarter, growth is expected to pick up to 1% next year.
"We are seeing inflation falling and the Fed will be able to start easing policy by the end of the year," Lombardelli said.
The OECD said central banks should set interest rates at levels that could continue to cool demand for some time, but the OECD also warned that waiting too long to cut interest rates could unduly weaken economic growth and push inflation below target.
The OECD forecasts that by the end of next year, the ECB will cut its benchmark interest rate to 2.5 per cent from the current 4 per cent, while the Bank of Japan is expected to raise it to 0.75 per cent over the same period.
In addition, the Pereira warns that there are risks, of course, and if inflation continues to be more stubborn than we expected, it is clear that monetary policy may have to remain restrictive for a longer period of time.