Source: data treasure
The longer the shareholding cycle of the social security fundWinstarbingoThe more significant the excess return.
At the end of last year, the Social Security Fund released an annual report saying that the cumulative investment income of the Social Security Fund since its inception was 16575.Winstarbingo.54 billion yuan, with an average annual investment rate of 7.66%. According to published data, the cumulative return of the social security fund exceeded 80% from 2014 to 2022, while the Prev index rose only half as much as the former, and only about 30% of the A-share market rose more than 80% in the same period (listed before 2014). As a result, many investors regard it as a "stock god" and pay close attention to the position trend of the social security fund.
In the article "patient Capital firmly holds shares in Strategic emerging Industries for a long time," the reporter analyzed and found that, as medium-and long-term funds, the shares of the social security fund are mainly companies with sound performance. So, what are the long-term holding companies of the social security fund? What is the market performance of these companies?
There are 0 St shares in the latest holding companies of the social security fund.
According to the statistics of Databao of the Securities Times, according to the statistics of the top ten circulating shareholders, by the end of the first quarter of 2024, none of the 659 companies held by the social security fund had worn a hat, that is, 0 ST companies, and none of these 659 companies had been "hooded" since 2022. Of the 46 new companies held in the first quarter of this year, 13 have been ST, most of them were ST before 2010, but quickly took off their hats with the improvement of their operations.
The nearest company, TCL Zhijia (formerly known as Omar Electric Appliance (002668)), was "capped" in September 2021 for illegal guarantee and non-operating capital occupation. After carrying out rectification and eliminating risks, it took off its hat in September of the following year.
From the perspective of QFII, according to the holding companies in the first quarter of 2024, there are 20 companies belonging to ST, of which 15 are new holdings in the first quarter, with the exception of * ST Magu, the rest of the companies have been wearing hats since April this year.
From the perspective of Sunshine Private Equity, according to the holding companies in the first quarter of 2024, there are 44 ST companies, of which 15 companies have been wearing hats since April this year, and * ST Jiayu is newly owned in the first quarter of this year. In addition, among the non-financial listed companies holding shares in the first quarter of this year, there are eight "wearing hats", of which * ST Yi Lian and * ST Meigu are new holding companies in the first quarter.
Of course, in addition to the social security fund, among the holding companies of enterprise annuities and financial companies in the first quarter of this year, there are also 0 companies with "stars and hats".
Owning ST means taking on higher investment risks, but from historical data, once the company is "wearing a hat", institutions may quickly adjust their positions. However, some investors said that ST is in a valuation depression because of its low share price, which may contain certain investment opportunities.
123 companies have been held by social security funds for more than 10 years.
According to Databao statistics, from 2004 to 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 (all according to the statistics at the end of the period), a total of nearly 2600 companies in the top ten tradable shareholders have appeared in the social security fund, with an average holding life of 3.39 years, of which 123 companies have been held for more than 10 years. East China Medicine (000963), overseas Chinese Town An and China Resources Sanjiu (000999) are among the top three, which last for 18 years, 14 years and 14 years respectively.
From the perspective of industry distribution, the 123 companies mentioned above are distributed in 27 industries, of which the number of companies in medicine and biology, food and beverage, machinery and equipment occupies the top three, with 20, 10 and 8 respectively; the number of companies in six industries, such as power equipment, transportation and automobile, is more than 5.
From the perspective of corporate attributes, there are a total of 71 state-owned enterprises, accounting for nearly 60% of the total, including 42 local state-owned enterprises, 29 central enterprises and 38 private enterprises.
Of the above 123 companies, Hongfa shares (600885), Central Plains Media (000719), Chinese Media (600373) and Tianrun Dairy (600419) are backdoor listed companies with backdoor listing years in 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2013, respectively. However, when the Social Security Fund held shares for the first time, all four companies had basically completed backdoor listings.
The longer the holding period of the social security fund, the greater the potential of the "10 times share".
How is the performance of the social security fund holding companies? Based on the statistics of 659 companies holding positions up to the end of the first quarter in 2024, the rise and fall of companies in different position cycles (taking the first and last dates of the range) are calculated and compared with the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period. In order to ensure the validity of the calculated results, classified statistics are carried out according to the number of years of continuous positions. For example, continuous positions from 2013 to the end of the first quarter of 2024 represent a period of 12 years, and the rest are the same; a period of 1 represents new positions in the first quarter of 2024.
The results show that the longer the holding period of the social security fund is, the more significant the excess return is. With the exception of the new positions in the first quarter of 2024, all the other companies outperformed the market as a whole. Specifically, the average increase of the 24 companies holding positions for more than 10 years is nearly three times, while the average increase of the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period is only about 20%. The average increase of 107 companies holding positions for 5 to 10 years is more than 70%, while the average increase of the Shanghai Index is only 3.37% over the same period.
The shares held by the social security fund for more than 10 years have increased by more than 25 times at most.
From the perspective of individual companies, of the 24 companies that have held positions for more than 10 years in a row by the end of the first quarter in 2024, only OCW A's share price fell during the holding cycle (from 2011 to the end of the first quarter in 2024), mainly affected by the downturn in the real estate industry; the stock prices of the other 23 companies rose more than 30% during the holding period.
East China Pharmaceutical has been continuously holding shares since 2007, and its share price has risen 25.2 times from the beginning of 2007 to the end of the first quarter in 2024, ranking among the top three chemical pharmaceutical companies in the same period, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose only 13.67% in the same period. looking at the entire A-share market, this performance is very split. The growth of the company's performance is stable, with net profit increasing by 13.59% in 2023 compared with the same period last year. Institutions predict that net profit will increase by 18.82% in 2024 and 16.07% in 2025.
Hua Lu Hengsheng has held shares in a row since 2012, during which time its share price has risen nearly 800%. In fact, as early as 2004, the company was concerned by the Social Security Fund, withdrew from the top 10 shareholders from 2005 to 2008 (the end of the year), and reappeared on the list of the top 10 shareholders in 2009 and 2010. If according to 2004 as the initial date, as of March 31, 2024, Hualu Hengsheng (600426) has increased as much as 37 times.
In addition, from 2013 to the first quarter of 2024, Hongfa shares, Tianshun Wind Energy (002531), Xinhecheng (002001) and other companies that have held positions for 12 years have all increased by more than 300%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by only 34.02% over the same period. Jiuyang (002242) and Shuanghui Development (000895) rose less than 50 per cent during the position period.
These companies may have "10 times" growth potential.
It is not difficult to see from the above analysis that companies with long shareholding cycles in social security funds generally perform well. In the article "Being a Running Man on the Road to Technological Innovation, Patience Capital has Long-term Firm Holding Shares in Strategic Emerging Industries", the reporter noticed that the performance growth and profitability of companies holding shares by social security funds have remained high and stable. level.
Accordingly, according to the conditions: 1. Net profit growth in 2023 will exceed 15%, and institutions predict that it is expected to continue to exceed 15% in 2024 and 2025;2. From 2021 to 2023, the weighted return on equity (ROE) will continue to exceed 15%;3. As of the end of the first quarter of 2024, the social security fund has held shares for more than 5 consecutive years. After screening, a total of 7 companies were selected.
Lanxiao Technology (300487), a leading company in China's ion exchange and adsorption resin industry, is expected to increase its net profit by an average of 33.03% from 2023 to 2025. The company's average weighted ROE from 2021 to 2023 will exceed 20%. Since 2018, it has been continuously held by social security funds, and its share price has increased more than 5 times as of the end of the first quarter of 2024; since the second quarter of 2024 (as of May 17), the company's share price has increased by 7.55%.
Yanjin Shop is one of the most influential small-category snack food companies with the most complete product categories in my country. Since 2018, the company has received continuous positions from social security funds. During the shareholding period, its share price has increased by about 350%. Since the second quarter of 2024, its share price has dropped slightly. The company's net profit will increase by more than 65% in 2023, and the growth rate in 2024 and 2025 may continue to exceed 25%. The weighted ROE will always remain at a high level.
AVIC Optoelectronics's share price increased at a low rate during its continuous shareholding in the social security fund, with an increase of nearly 65% from 2020 to the first quarter of 2024. Institutions predict that net profit growth in 2024 and 2025 may continue to exceed 20%. The company's average dividend yield from 2021 to 2023 (closing price at the end of the period) exceeds 2%, and its share price has increased by more than 10% since the second quarter of 2024.
Hongya CNC (002833), which is engaged in the research and development of CNC panel furniture machinery and fully automated production lines, has been held by the social security fund for 5 consecutive years; the average weighted ROE from 2021 to 2023 reached 22.6%, and the average dividend yield for the same period exceeded 3.5%., the stock price has increased by more than 5% since the second quarter of 2024.
Statement: All information content of Databon does not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky and investment needs to be cautious.
Editor in charge: Li Dan
Proofread by: Wang Jincheng