Last night, 20.Deuceswildcardgameonline: 30DeuceswildcardgameonlineThe release of relevant data from the United States is a further blow.DeuceswildcardgameonlineRaised the expectation that the Fed would cut interest rates.
The pricing of swap contracts shows that the first rate cut expected by traders has been postponed from September to November, and that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by only about 40 basis points this year.
The most optimistic forecast at the beginning of the year is to cut interest rates in March, a total of six times, totaling 150 basis points.
After the release of the data, disappointment swept across the major markets, U. S. stocks, gold plummeted on the spot, along with the Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened sharply lower this morning.
However, the performance of A-shares is not bad today. Under the leadership of the weighted sectors such as dividends, infrastructure, machinery and so on, the Shanghai Stock Exchange finally closed red, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell only slightly.Deuceswildcardgameonline.01%.
As far as the dean knows, there seems to be an unwritten saying: below 3000 points, margin trading is not allowed, but financing is business as usual.
We just talked about the mysterious fund protection gem ETF yesterday. When these two messages are combined, it should be said that the maintenance intention of the market index is quite clear.
Therefore, the market is still likely to adjust in the near future, but the range should not be very deep, the high probability will not break through 3000 points. If it is a friend whose position is very light, it should be a more reasonable strategy to increase the position step by step at every bargain.
However, as we all know, the market is still in a structural market. In the protection of the plate, there are mostly some plates, there should be relatively drastic adjustments.
Today, the dean will take an inventory of what kind of ETF may have certain risks in the near future under the premise of failing to cut interest rates.
1. Innovative drugs
After a large number of events in Yao Ming this year, the logic of investment in medicine has become clearer.
I believe most friends already understand that interest rate cuts are good for the innovative drug sector, while not cutting interest rates is bad.
If beautiful countries cut interest rates, the financing costs of biomedical companies will be lower. With more financing, small pharmaceutical companies will have more money to engage in more innovative drug projects, and more money will be given to Yao Ming to do experiments.
If the expectations of beautiful countries to cut interest rates are not fulfilled for a long time, and everyone has no money, they will naturally die together.
It is very appropriate for this logic to apply to the whole innovative pharmaceutical industry chain of beautiful countries. If you want to use A-share innovative drugs, it is slightly less than ideal.
Quite simply, there are not so many domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies.
Unfortunately, the innovation index basically does not distinguish between companies that specialize in doing experiments such as Yao Ming and other companies that sell drugs. All kinds of ETF have both prosperity and loss.
Given that Yao Ming earns more than half of his income from beautiful countries, the negative side is obviously even worse.
Therefore, everyone should be cautious about ETF with the words "innovative medicine" these days.
2. China is generally interconnected and Hong Kong stocks
These days, the dean found that everyone seems to be very concerned about ETF varieties such as China General Interconnection, Hong Kong Science and Technology, and so on.
There are two main factors affecting this kind of variety. One is the interest rate hikes and cuts in beautiful countries, and the other is whether the domestic recovery process is accelerated.
Let's look at factor one first.
The reason why the A-share market is relatively independent today is mainly due to the relatively large restrictions on the entry and exit of foreign capital. They can't run if they want to, and even if the Federal Reserve says it will raise interest rates tomorrow, it won't be able to clear its positions at 01:30.
However, as we all know, most of the Hong Kong stocks are speculative and much more open. Then they naturally run very fast.
If beautiful countries want to raise interest rates, they might as well hurry up and change them into dollars to eat interest, which can easily crush prices.
So why wasn't it smashed today? The key is that factor two is at work.
As the old saying goes, it takes a good blacksmith to make good steel. If your own recovery is booming, the performance of listed companies is good enough, and valuations are low enough, all obstacles will not be hindered, and all kinds of funds will have to buy your stock despite all difficulties and dangers.
A few days ago, the release of our own data is still OK, market feedback is relatively positive, which gives Hong Kong stocks a reassurance, the price also has support.
So, next, China General, Hong Kong science and technology ETF, the focus is not on whether to cut interest rates, but to see whether their April data continue the good momentum.
If the recovery gets stronger and stronger, it won't matter if interest rates are raised on the other side.
If the recovery weakens again, failure to cut interest rates on the other side may become the trigger for the collapse of Hong Kong stocks.
3. Gold shares
As we said yesterday, due to the better forecast of the first quarter report of some gold stocks, the market began to speculate on the first quarter report of gold and the second quarter report of copper.
Therefore, for gold stocks, its core influencing factors are similar to Hong Kong stock science and technology, which is also a negative and a positive. The negative is the adjustment of the international gold price, and the good is the soaring performance.
International gold prices have been affected by the failure of interest rate cuts, which have been adjusted in the past two days, but by a small margin, and the overall risk looks manageable for the time being. However, the first-quarter reports of most enterprises have not yet been announced, and there is still a lot of room for imagination.
Therefore, the market pays more attention to the uncapped good, while the low-level negative is temporarily ignored.
But the risks here cannot be ignored.
First of all, as we said yesterday, Zijin Mining derives most of its profits from copper rather than gold. If the market originally hyped Zijin Mining misunderstood its gold share, then the quarterly report could easily be interpreted as "less than expected", triggering a sharp adjustment in gold stocks as a whole.
Second, once most of the gold and copper quarterly reports have been published, the good news will be out. After that, if there is a negative interest rate cut, there will be a lack of corresponding good protection, which may also lead to a fall in prices.
In a short period of time, the failure of interest rate cuts has little impact on international gold prices and gold stocks. But in the medium term, there may still be some risks. We should not be carried away and completely forget the possibility of further bad luck.
With the increasing proportion of foreign investment, A shares are more and more affected by overseas markets. However, when we publish the article every night, the US stock market has not yet opened. This part of the impact will not be known until the next morning.
Therefore, the dean also set up a fan base, in view of this kind of after-hours important news, we in each trading day before the trading for everyone to add tips on the relevant opportunities and risks.
Everyone add me vx, I will pull you into the group.