SourceCoolpokerChina Newsweek
Maotai has reduced the price.
Recently, there are market rumors.CoolpokerBulk bottle Feitian Maotai (53 degrees / 500ml) wholesale price fell below 2600 yuan, compared with the previous price of 3000 yuan, 2600 yuan is indeed much lower.
More importantly, Maotai is regarded as the weather vane of the liquor industry. On April 8, affected by the news of the price reduction in Maotai, the liquor sector fell across the board, and the China Securities Liquor fell by 4.Coolpoker.13%, wine ETF fell by 3.Coolpoker.97%.
For ordinary people, it doesn't make much difference to sell Feitian Moutai for 2600 yuan or 3000 yuan, and whether they can afford it or not; for Maotai distillery, 2600 yuan is far from the guiding price of 1499 yuan and the ex-factory price of 1149 yuan, which does not prevent enterprises from making money.
But for Maotai dealers, the price falling to 2600 yuan is very different. In their eyes, 2500 yuan is the "life-and-death line", while falling below 2600 yuan means that it is not far from this "life-and-death line".
It did come down.
On April 10, China Newsweek visited several liquor sales terminals in Beijing, although it could not find Feitian Moutai with less than 2600 yuan, but dealers generally reported that Maotai had indeed fallen.
The owner of a liquor and tobacco company near Lize Financial Street said that the price of Sanfei (bulk bottle Feitian Maotai) hovered between 2600 and 2650 yuan this week, while in a tobacco and alcohol store near ITC CBD, the price of Sanfei was 2700 yuan. The boss said that recently, the stock is very sufficient and it is not digested quickly. The original goods of half a month can now be sold for a month.
Lao Huang (a pseudonym) is a senior Maotai scalper. The price of scattered flight here is 2680 yuan. If you issue an invoice, you have to add a tax. However, he told China Newsweek, "if you are not in a hurry to buy, it is recommended to wait and see."
Online, the price of Maotai seems to be lower. Take "Today's Wine Price", a well-known third-party wine price platform in the industry, as an example, on April 10, Feitian Moutai bulk bottles fell to 2505 yuan per bottle, and the original box fell to 2790 yuan per bottle. However, the above prices do not include taxes, logistics, labor and other necessary costs.
For the reason for the price reduction of Maotai, some dealers attributed it to the volume of 375ml Fengfeng Maotai. This is a "digital-reality integration" product launched by Guizhou Moutai at the end of last year, which focuses on the youth market and is sold only in the "Fengfeng Digital World" (meta-universe APP, jointly developed by Moutai and NetEase).
From now on, users holding relevant materials in APP can follow the corresponding steps to synthesize the corresponding materials and complete the right to pick up Jiefeng Moutai Liquor, according to a message posted on the official account of "Luofeng Digital World" Wechat on March 28 this year.
Although the capacity is slightly smaller than that of 500ml's Feitian Moutai, its taste and quality are the same, with a price of 1498 yuan per bottle. According to this conversion, it is equivalent to 1997 yuan to buy a bottle of 500ml Feitian Moutai, which is indeed much cheaper than the current wholesale price of at least 2600 yuan.
In addition, there are rumors in the market that the first batch of Fengfeng Moutai is 200000 bottles, and dealers are worried that it will squeeze the demand of Feitian Moutai, resulting in a drop in channel prices. However, Guizhou Moutai said that the planned volume of Guifeng Liquor accounts for a small proportion of the annual output of Maotai Liquor, which will not affect the existing price system of Maotai Liquor.
Cai Xuefei, a liquor analyst, told China Newsweek that it coincides with the off-season of consumption in the liquor industry, and it is normal for Maotai prices to be low.
In fact, at this time in previous years, it was indeed a depression in the price of Maotai. According to "Today's Wine Price" data, at the end of March 2022, the wholesale reference price of Feitian Moutai bulk bottles fell to 2600 yuan and the original box fell to 2820 yuan.
So, is the reason for Maotai's price reduction really that simple?
Or the inventory problem?
In Cai Xuefei's view, the decline in Maotai prices, in addition to the off-season reasons, but also related to the larger social inventory in the early stage.
In recent years, in order to improve performance and seize the market, wine enterprises continue to expand production and press a large number of goods to the channel and society. In 2023, liquor inventory became a common crisis in the whole industry, and caused a serious price inversion phenomenon. At the end of last year, Liu Zhenguo, deputy secretary general of the China Liquor Industry Association, said at the 2023 China International famous Liquor Expo, "overcapacity is a problem in the liquor industry, such as weak capacity expectations, reduced consumption expectations of liquor in the external environment, high inventory, etc., all of which are more truly reflected in the liquor industry."
As a result, from the second half of 2023, destocking has become the main theme of the liquor industry. However, from the actual effect, the inventory problem is not only not improved, but more serious. Ouyang Qianli, a researcher in the beverage industry, told China News Weekly that last year the circulation market of the wine industry was vague, and this year it was a decline in the certainty of the wine industry.
Data show that in the first three quarters of 2023, the total inventory of A-share liquor listed companies totaled 136.35 billion yuan, an increase of 12.6 percent over the same period last year. By contrast, in 2020, the total inventory of listed liquor enterprises was 98.5 billion yuan. From the point of view of the amount of inventory in the total assets, 19 of the 20 A-share liquor enterprises have increased their inventory.
Why is it so difficult to stock spirits?
Yang Jingui, general manager of Beijing Taihe Golden bottle Culture Co., Ltd., told China Newsweek that this is related to two factors. On the one hand, wine companies need performance growth. Head wine enterprises are not only listed companies, but also the purse of local governments, whether from the perspective of capital market or government performance evaluation, they must grow. On the other hand, liquor can not be reduced to stock. "most consumer goods industries can reduce prices to get rid of inventory, such as cars and home appliances, but spirits cannot. For a long time in the past, the growth logic of spirits, especially high-end spirits, was based on price expectations, that is, the older the spirit is, the better it is, and the older it is, the more valuable it is. That's why dealers are willing to hoard goods, and consumers are willing to buy more and more. "
The facts have also proved this point. 2016 is the peak of China's liquor industry, but since 2017, domestic liquor production has declined for seven consecutive years.
In 2023, the total output of the liquor industry reached 6.29 million liters, down by more than half from the all-time high of 13.584 million liters in 2016. At the same time, the sales income of the liquor industry increased from 612.57 billion yuan in 2016 to 1.08026 trillion yuan in 2023, and the profit also increased from 79.715 billion yuan in 2016 to 232.8 billion yuan in 2023.
The decline in output but the increase in revenue and profits are backed by price increases. Cai Xuefei also said that liquor is a social consumer product, a typical face-saving consumption, confidence and expectations are more important, the price increase is to boost market consumer confidence, so as to stimulate market demand and drive market consumption.
As a result, there is also a strange phenomenon of "liquor price war, who is much higher than".
On November 1 last year, Maotai sounded the bugle of a new round of price increases. At that time, Guizhou Moutai (Feitian, Wuxing) all raised the ex-factory price, with an average increase of about 20%, which is also the price increase of Guizhou Moutai again after nearly six years. Subsequently, Luzhou laojiao, Yanghe, Jiannanchun, Wuliangye, Fenjiu and other leading enterprises have announced price increases.
The dealer is in a hurry.
Who is the most anxious when the price of Maotai has dropped to 2600 yuan? Dealer.
Yang Jingui explained that for Maotai dealers, 2500 yuan is their "line of life and death", that is, the break-even line. If it falls below 2600 yuan, it means approaching the "life-and-death line".
In the eyes of ordinary people, selling Maotai can be said to be profitable, and it is a good business that can make money even if you lie down. On April 3, Guizhou Moutai announced that the company's total revenue in 2023 reached 150.56 billion yuan, an increase of 18.04 percent over the same period last year, and net profit was 74.734 billion yuan, an increase of 19.16 percent over the same period last year. The gross profit margin of Maotai liquor is as high as 94.12%.
In the circulation channel, the ex-factory price of Feitian Maotai is about 1163 yuan, and the market guidance price is 1499 yuan, but the terminal transaction price is much higher than these two figures. Before the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2022, the bulk bottle Feitian Maotai once exceeded 3000 yuan, and the original box Feitian Maotai also exceeded 3300 yuan. In other words, there is a profit of 2000 yuan for a bottle of wine. Isn't that profiteering?
But Yang Jingui doesn't see it that way. Maotai is not the only wine in Feitian. If you want to be the agent of Maotai, it is impossible to sell only one wine in Feitian. Dealers have a fixed quota every year and need to be bundled with low-margin products, which is somewhat similar to the distribution of luxury goods.
The product matrix of Maotai is quite large, which can be divided into two categories: Maotai liquor and series liquor.
Among them, Maotai, represented by Feitian Maotai, is the main revenue force of Maotai Distillery. Data show that in 2023, the sales revenue of Maotai liquor reached 126.589 billion yuan, which is also the sales income of Maotai liquor exceeding 100 billion yuan for two consecutive years.
There are many series of wines, such as Maotai 1935, Han Sauce, Guizhou Daqu, Laimao, Taiyuan Liquor and so on. Data show that in 2023, the business income contributed by Maotai series was 20.63 billion yuan, breaking through the 20 billion yuan mark for the first time. Among them, the sales revenue of Maotai 1935 reached 11 billion yuan, the revenue of Maotai Prince Liquor exceeded 4 billion yuan, and the revenue of Han Sauce, Guizhou Daqu and Laimao exceeded 1 billion yuan respectively.
From the point of view of Maotai, there is no problem with the diversified development of enterprises, after all, it needs to consolidate the moat, but from the point of view of dealers, although the series of wines also have Maotai halo blessing, it is far from easy to sell.
For example, Maotai 1935 is a new thousand yuan price belt product launched by Maotai in recent years. The purchase price of this product is 798 yuan per bottle, and the suggested retail price is 1188 yuan per bottle. "but at the terminal, the actual transaction price is between 850 and 900 yuan. If you get rid of rent and labor, you won't make any money." Lao Huang said.
In early 2023, Maotai launched Taiyuan Liquor in order to seize the new highland of 100 yuan soy sauce and wine. "the purchase price of this product is 80 yuan per bottle, but the terminal price hovers around 50 or 60 yuan for a long time, which is basically a loss." Lao Huang further said.
"therefore, after taking into account these costs, Feitian Maotai can only be sold for 2500 yuan to ensure that dealers do not lose money. This is not the price set by Maotai, but slowly fumbled out by the channels. " Yang Jingui said.
"does the dealer have to sell series of wines?"
"then don't do it. There are plenty of people scrambling to do it anyway."
Be kind to dealers
When will the price of Maotai recover?
"from a rational point of view, the scarcity attribute of Maotai has not changed, and as a social product, the folk cultural attribute of liquor has not changed, which will form the basis of the price trend of Maotai in the future." Cai Xuefei believes that the demand of Feitian Moutai is expected to enter the recovery cycle in the third quarter.
Things may be better than expected. According to the "Today Wine Price" data, the price of Feitian Moutai has risen continuously since April 11. at present, the price of bulk bottles is 2630 yuan and the price of the original case is 2825 yuan.
In this regard, dealers also admit this, but the problem is that mobile sales continue to slow, testing not only the confidence of dealers, but also the financial strength of dealers.
The retail industry is highly dependent on cash flow, and so is spirits. Only when the goods are sold can you pay the rent and pay the winery. More importantly, once the dealer's capital chain is broken and the money has to be sold back, it is likely to impact the price system of wine enterprises.
Today, the sales method of Chinese liquor is still very traditional, highly dependent on offline distribution channels. It is generally believed in the industry that e-commerce channels only account for about 10% of the entire liquor circulation market, which is as strong as Maotai without dealers.
Historically, Maotai has regarded dealers as "benefactors", who have saved Maotai from water and fire many times. In recent years, with the vigorous implementation of direct sales channels in Maotai, direct sales revenue continues to grow, but traditional channels still account for more than half.
In 2023, the operating income of Guizhou Moutai direct sales channel was about 67.233 billion yuan, an increase of 36.16% over the same period last year, while that of wholesale agency channels was about 79.986 billion yuan, an increase of 7.52% over the same period last year. And after a few years of vigorous reduction of the vassal, the number of Maotai dealers has basically stabilized. From 2021 to 2023, the domestic dealers of Guizhou Moutai are 2089, 2084 and 2080 respectively.
More importantly, the dealers are the "cash machines" and "cisterns" of wine enterprises.
Head wine enterprises generally adopt the policy of first payment and then goods, that is, dealers make money first, and then the winery delivers the goods. It is precisely because of the existence of dealers that wine enterprises are able to shop down and successfully complete the performance indicators explained by the superior unit.
The dealer also plays an important role in Maotai, that is, to complete the sales task of the series of wines.
Maotai's low-end products are mainly sold through distribution channels. In 2023, the average direct selling price of Guizhou Moutai reached 4.3002 million yuan / ton, with a gross profit margin of 95.46%, while the average selling price of the distribution channel was 1.3877 million yuan / ton, with a gross profit margin of 89.29%. Without the help of dealers, there will be problems in the sales of weak series of wines.
In the view of Xiao Zhuqing, an analyst in the liquor industry, in order to solve the inventory problem, listed companies should pay attention to the digestion progress of channel inventory and "let channel partners survive." it is a prerequisite for the sustainable development of these listed liquor companies and the continued contribution of channels in the future. "