Event: the company releases quarterly report 2024Gbet33com24Q1 realized 42% income.Gbet33com90 million yuanGbet33com, year-on-year + 7Gbet33com2.2%, realized the net profit of 452 million yuan, + 16.8% compared with the same period last year, and deducted the non-return net profit of 446 million yuan, + 16.9% over the same period last year. The company's profit exceeded market expectations. The high-end process continues, and Q1 achieves a simultaneous rise in volume and price. In terms of volume, 24Q1 achieved sales of 867000 tons, an increase of 5.2% over the same period last year. The steady growth of BQ1 sales was mainly due to a low base in the same period last year, and the superimposed company base market benefited from the tourism boom. In terms of price, the growth rate of 24Q1's high-end / mainstream / economic beer revenue is + 8.3% / 3.6% / 12.4% respectively. Among them, Wusu is continuing to repair along with the recovery of consumption, while Lebao and Chongqing brands benefit from the rapid growth of tourism consumption in the base market. In terms of price, thanks to the continuous upgrading of the overall product structure, the tonnage prices of 24Q1 were + 1.3% to 4820 yuan / ton respectively compared with the same period last year. From a regional point of view, the income growth rate of the northwest / central / southern districts in 2023 was + 3.2% / 7% / 9.3% respectively, and the southern market maintained a high growth trend. The cost downside dividend is realized, Q1 profitability is improved. 24Q1's gross profit margin is 47.9%, an increase of 2.7pp over the same period last year. The increase in gross profit margin is mainly due to the continuous decline in the prices of raw materials such as barley and packaging materials since the beginning of the year, and the continuous improvement in the company's product structure; from the perspective of ton cost, 2Q1 ton cost is-3.3% year-on-year. In terms of expenses, 24Q1's sales expense rate is 13.1%, year-on-year + 0.2pp, mainly due to the company's offline expenses this year; 24Q1 management expense rate is year-on-year + 0.01pp to 3.1%. Taken together, 24Q1's net interest rate is + 1.6pp to 20.9% compared with the same period last year. The large item strategy continues and we look forward to the performance in the peak season. 1) in terms of products, with the recovery of consumption power and the continuous improvement of the overall external environment, Wusu outside Xinjiang is expected to achieve restorative growth, while Xinjiang will continue to improve its internal structure with the help of Wusu 1984. The company will also continue to promote the national expansion and internal structure upgrading of Le Bao and Chongqing brands, in which Chongqing brands will gradually move to more regions with the help of nationwide hot pot channels, and the volume of the two waist brands will provide a substantial guarantee for the company's volume and price promotion. 2) in terms of channels, it is expected to add a large number of single-digit cities this year, and the focus will gradually shift to the key markets that have been developed in the past, while fees will also be tilted to offline channels. 3) in terms of cost, the relief of cost pressure brought about by the cancellation of barley double opposition policy will be offset by depreciation brought by the commissioning of Foshan plant. Looking to the future, under the double positive stimulation of this year's peak season Olympic Games and European Cup, the company's profitability is expected to rise steadily. Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the EPS from 2024 to 2026 will be 3.05,3.34,3.64 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 22 times, 20 times and 19 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating. Risk hint: the recovery of the current drinking scene is not as good as the expected risk, and high-end competition aggravates the risk. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
