Everbright Securities released a research report sayingBaccaratbarsolaireIt covers Dongfang Electric (01072) for the first time and is rated as "Buy". It is estimated that the company will achieve an operating income of 706amp 815 / 93 billion yuan in 2024-26, the net profit of return to its mother will be 44amp 55 / 6.2 billion yuan respectively, and the target price will be 13.Baccaratbarsolaire.99 Hong Kong dollars With the rapid growth of the installed scale of new energy, thermal power units as "power ballast stone" will still have room for growth of a certain scale, and the company, as the leader of thermal power equipment, is expected to maintain the growth of orders and income scale; in addition, pumped storage and nuclear power business will also achieve steady growth with the continuous progress of project construction.
The main points of Everbright Securities are as follows:
The leading enterprises of energy equipment manufacturing will build a new development pattern of "six electricity and six industries".
Dongfang Electric is one of the largest energy equipment manufacturing enterprise groups in the world, speeding up the transformation of "green smart manufacturing" under the background of double carbon. It has formed an industrial pattern of "simultaneous development of six electricity and coordination of six industries" ("six electricity": wind power, solar energy, hydropower, nuclear power, gas power, coal power). "six industries": high-end petrochemical equipment industry, energy saving and environmental protection industry, engineering and international trade industry, modern manufacturing service industry, power electronics and control industry, emerging industry).
In the process of building a new power system, the company has deeply benefited from all kinds of business:
Coal power: the "ballast stone" of the power system has entered the acceleration period of new construction.
In the construction of new power system, coal power has always played the role of "ballast stone", which plays an important role in peak supply protection and mitigation. At present, coal power has entered an acceleration period of new construction: according to incomplete statistics of the Polaris power network, 240 thermal power projects have made important progress in approval, construction and signing from 2023 to the end of March 2024. The competition pattern of the coal power equipment industry is relatively stable, and the company is in a leading position, which will fully benefit from the rapid development of the coal power industry as a whole.
Gas and electricity: high-quality regulating power supply, the new operation is obviously accelerated.
Gas-fired unit is a high-quality peak-shaving power supply, which plays an important role in the new power system. The new operation of gas and electricity accelerated significantly in 2023. According to the data of China Power Union, new gas and electricity installed 10GW was added in 2023, which was + 60% year on year. At present, the company has achieved successful ignition in the F-class 50MW heavy-duty gas turbine test, no-load test to achieve rated speed and stable operation, in the domestic leading position in the field of gas and electricity equipment.
Nuclear power: there is a broad space for the growth of new nuclear power installations.
According to the "Research on carbon Peak and carbon Neutralization path of Electric Power in China" (Shu Yinbiao, etc.), nuclear power will start construction of 680 units annually before 2030, and the installed capacity of nuclear power will be about 120 million kilowatts in 2030, which has a broad space for growth. The competition pattern of nuclear power equipment is relatively stable, and the company is in a leading position. In the field of nuclear island equipment, Dongfang Electric and Shanghai Electric lead the country in technical strength, and Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric and Harbin Electric Group face each other in the field of conventional island equipment.
Risk hint: the promotion and construction of domestic thermal power projects is not as expected, the promotion and construction of domestic nuclear power projects and pumped storage projects is not as expected, and the industry competition intensifies, resulting in large losses in the company's wind power business.