News summary
Profits of ferrosilicon industry risejackpotboom, increased enthusiasm for starting workjackpotboom, market supply is expected to increase, but demand is facing an empty window period and inventories are high. The Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate policy and commodity market sentiment is under pressure. It is recommended that investors in SF2409 contracts maintain a weak shock mentality and pay attention to risks. The manganese and silicon market is supported by costs and has limited demand growth. It is recommended that the SM2409 contract wait and see in the short term to control risks.
Newsletter text
[The ferrosilicon market remains stable] At the industrial level, due to rising profits, the enthusiasm for production in the main ferrosilicon producing areas has increased, and the market expects future supply to increase. However, in May, the purchase demand of steel mills was coming to an end, a new round of procurement had not yet begun, social inventories were still at a high level, and the demand side showed a short-term gap.
[The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates high, affecting market sentiment] At the macro level, the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes show that the high interest rate policy is expected to continue for a long time. Recently, the speeches of U.S. officials have also been more hawkish. Market expectations have shifted from previous RRR cuts to wait-and-see, boosting the dollar, while sentiment in the commodity market has shown weakness.
[Strategic recommendations focus on the SF2409 contract] The SF2409 contract has experienced a sharp decline in recent days, and the red momentum column of the daily MACD indicator is tightening. Investors are advised to maintain a weak shock mentality and strengthen risk management when operating.
[The manganese and silicon market shows weakness] In terms of cost, the price of manganese ore continues to rise, and the transaction price is gradually moving closer to the market price. The second round of price cuts for chemical coke also provides support for the spot price of manganese and silicon. In terms of industry, some northern manufacturers are expected to resume production at the end of the month. Some manufacturers in Ningxia have begun to use high-priced ores, and manufacturers have increased their willingness to ship.
[The bidding price of steel mills has increased slightly, but the increase in demand is limited] In terms of demand, the bidding price of silicon and manganese for a steel plant in East China is 8450 yuan/ton, and the purchase volume is 4500 tons. Most of the bidding prices of northern steel mills have dropped by 100-150 yuan from the bidding prices of mainstream steel mills. Although the bidding prices of steel mills have increased, as procurement approaches the end, the sustainability of demand growth is limited.
[Recommended short-term wait-and-see strategy] The SM2409 contract rebounded after bottoming out. The market is intertwined with long and short positions, and the market has large fluctuations. Investors are advised to focus on wait-and-see in the short term and pay attention to risk management.
